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There is not any pourcentage of getting banned or not. When you use a CFW on your console, "Sony" (ie its systems) will see it, they'll add the consoleID using the CFW to its blacklist then you won't be able to connect anymore.
Chances or pourcentage doesn't exist, not on automatic systems.
+1 @Calyx
That's useless, even if you are not connected to the PSN, the PS3 will send some data about your cfg to Sony. There is not any "consoleID spoof" and there won't be.
Sorry for being rude but that's bullshit. There was already a PS3 SuperSlim consoleID released (idk if it was really one or not), it took a few days before getting banned like this one. The disadvantage was the account wave ban.
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